Weekly Energy Market Updates by Region

Issue week: December 12 2024 (Wk 51)

 

POWER MARKETS

WEST  Over the weekend, while the weather was warmer and both wind and hydro generation were strong, spot prices dropped sharply, especially in Mid-C, where they fell by roughly $20/MWh from December 6 through December 7 before slipping by another $10/MWh to $29/MWh on Monday. Since then, heating demand has spiked as overnight temperatures have nosedived, and spot prices have risen throughout this week. The Day Ahead averages for the month to date now sit at $48.29/MWh in Mid-C, $51.71/MWh in NP15, and $44.16/MWh in SP15 at the time of this writing. Despite the rise in demand, prices are expected to stay relative-ly flat next week as renewables look reliable and the 15-day weather forecast indicates warmer conditions.

ERCOT  Real-time prices have averaged around $25-$30/MWh so far in December, thanks to weather that has stayed relatively mild despite brief spells of freezing temperatures. Relatively healthy renewable output on colder days has ensured ample generation reserves to meet morning and evening peaks, and these conditions are forecasted to persist through the middle of next week. In the term market, forward curves continue to move higher alongside natural gas; all calendar-year strips down the curve are up by roughly $1/MWh since last week and have breached $50/MWh again.

EAST Temperatures that reached the 60s in Boston and New York on Wednesday have low-ered prices across all regions this week despite rising natural gas prices. While Day Ahead prices are averaging $36.78/MWh in PJM, $56.91/MWh in NYISO, and $62.76/MWh in ISO-NE’s WCMASS this week, Real Time prices are around $34.12/MWh, $53.13/MWh, and $65.01/MWh, respectively. Next week should start warmer than normal, featuring highs ranging from the mid-40s to the mid-50s, before cooling down later in the week, likely keeping prices moder-ate.

NATURAL GAS 

The EIA reported Thursday morning that, for the week ending December 6, U.S. inventories lost another 190 Bcf, more than the projected shrinkage of 175 Bcf. Total stockpiles now stand at 3,747 Bcf, up by 1.8% from a year ago and 4.6% above the five-year average for the same week.

At the time of this report, the NYMEX Henry Hub prompt month of January was trading at $3.42/MMBtu, 9% more than the price noted last week. Gas Daily prices faltered over the weekend as warmer weather decreased demand amid plentiful reserves. However, demand has risen in recent days with the cold to return prices this week closer to where they were last week. The ample winter supply, the high-est recorded by the EIA since 2016, should keep prices relatively flat next week de-spite the rise in demand. Since last week, the Gas Daily averages for the month to date have receded somewhat to $3.20/MMBtu at Northwest Sumas, $3.60/MMBtu at PG&E Citygate, and $3.65/MMBtu at SoCal Citygate.