banner_market_intelligence_1440x441

MARKET TREND ANALYSIS

Weekly Energy Market Updates by Region

 

 

 


Issue week: December 05 2024 (Wk 50)

wk50_Chart1_Energy_Market_Intelligence_Commercial_2024wk50

 

POWER MARKETS

WEST  Low overnight temperatures have raised demand for heat during the even-ing ramp over the past two weeks, and this week’s solar generation in SP15 has been hindered by heavy cloud coverage. Consequently, prices have spiked and continue to rise as temperatures continue to fall. The Day Ahead averages for these first five days of December have already increased from the final November averages by $19.46/MWh in Mid-C, $8.20/MWh in NP15, and $13.35/MWh in SP15 to $54.22/MWh, $53.25/MWh, and $47.64/MWh, respectively, at the time of this writing. Fortunately, sunny days are predicted for the coming week, so prices should flatten. .

ERCOT  Real-time prices have stayed in the mid-to-upper $30s/MWh this week despite a few triple-digit outliers in the early-evening hours. However, wind output is expected to be on the low side for the next few days, so their volatility should increase. In particular, prices should climb in the morning-ramp hours of HE600-HE800, when load grows before the onset of solar generation around HE900. Term prices are mixed, the front of the curve benefitting from a small decline while outer terms for CY26 and beyond have surged by nearly $2/MWh because of both rising natural gas prices and rising heat rates.

EAST This first week of December may not mark the arrival of true winter but has marked the arrival of true winter weather, which has produced a clamor for heat and yielded triple-digit LMPs as loads have grown. Day Ahead prices have averaged $51.85/MWh in PJM, $88.81/MWh in NYISO, and $107.19/MWh in ISO-NE’s WCMASS, and the corresponding Real Time averages are considerably higher at $64.08/MWh, $104.34/MWh, and $128.74/MWh, respectively. Warmer yet unstable conditions expected next week are likely to keep prices elevated.


NATURAL GAS 

The EIA reported Thursday morning that, for the week ending November 29, U.S. inventories surrendered 30 Bcf, still 30% less than the projected withdrawal of 43 Bcf. Total stockpiles now stand at 3,937 Bcf, up by 4.9% from a year ago and 7.8% above the five-year average for the same week.

January has taken over as the NYMEX Henry Hub prompt month and was trading at $3.13/MMBtu at the time of this writing. Although plunging nighttime temperatures are keeping demand high and expected to keep doing so in the coming weeks, particularly in Northern California, supply looks healthy. Furthermore, temperatures are expected to rise by approximately 5 degrees in Southern California next week, so demand should dip there at least. For the month to date, Gas Daily Prices are averaging $3.48/MMBtu at North-west Sumas, $3.82/MMBtu at PG&E Citygate, and $3.76/MMBtu at SoCal Citygate.




Chart1

Map1

Map2



Map1_Energy_Market_Intelligence_Commercial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 The Power (Needed) to Coin Money 

The Public Utility Commission of Texas voted on November 21 to require cryptocurrency mining facilities consuming more than 75 MW within ERCOT to register with state regulators. Texas has become quite the epicenter of the rapidly expanding “crypto” uni-verse, and this regulatory development not only reflects a recognition of the impact of that growth on the energy industry, a pillar of the Lone Star State’s economy in its own right, but also exposes a potential shortcoming of the burgeoning sector.

A creature of cyberspace, crypto is inextricably tethered to and continuously dependent on functioning computers and other electronic infrastructure for its very existence and legitimacy, such as it is. Consequently, crypto miners increasingly strain power grids as the popularity of bitcoin and similar digital currencies continues to rise, and the issue is especially acute in Texas. Robert Walton, writing for Utility Dive, reported on November 25 that, whereas crypto miners, per the U.S. Energy Information Administration, consume 0.6%-2.3% of all U.S. electricity, ERCOT sorts their power needs into a bigger bucket labeled “large flexible loads,” whose “[aggregate] demand in Texas could total 54 billion kWh in 2025, up almost 60% from expected demand this year,” and “would represent about 10% of total forecast electricity consumption on the ERCOT grid next year.” Conceivably, speculators could decide that being part of a group responsible for so much energy usage makes crypto more trouble than it is worth.

In their present forms, standard banking and finance at large also employ a sprawling technological apparatus that requires immense amounts of electricity. However, those institutions represent a more or less natural evolution of systems that began well before the Industrial Revolution, still manage to manage the entire economy, and, if necessary, can always return to their origins in physical media requiring no more energy than the finite quantities needed to run the printing presses and coin stampers. Moreover, those legacy systems are currently what confer value on crypto in the first place, for, ironically, many of those who hoard bitcoin and other supposed substitutes for the regular U.S. dollar do so primarily because of what they fetch in regular U.S. dollars, rendering crypto redundant at best and unnecessary at worst. The status of crypto as legal tender, subject to the whims of the U.S. Congress, is tenuous as well.

The negative effect of its substantial associated energy demand on the price of electricity is just another hindrance that may impair the viability of crypto in the long run. Electricity will perpetually be an essential input factored into determining its value, which energy consumers, the vast majority of whom still pay their utility bills the old-fashioned way, may ultimately deem far less than advertised.


 

 

 

Previous Weekly Market Reports: Archive

 

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and all actions and judgments taken in response to it are recipient’s sole responsibility. Champion Energy Services does not guaranty its accuracy. This reports is provided ‘as is’. Champion Energy Services makes no expressed or implied representations or warranties of any kind. Except as otherwise indicated in this report, this report shall remain the sole and exclusive property of Champion Energy Services and shall be free from any claim or right, license, title or interest. Champion Energy Services shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from this report.