Weekly Energy Market Updates by Region

Issue week: May 26th, 2022  (Wk 21)

 

POWER MARKETS

 

WEST  Day Ahead prices have averaged around $60/MWh in both CAISO and Mid-C throughout the month. This week, they have been especially high in CAISO because of extremely hot weather in Northern California and, of course, high spot prices for natural gas. After SoCal Citygate announced unscheduled maintenance on two separate pipelines earlier this week, June basis for SoCal Citygate rose and lifted prices for the prompt month of June in SP15 by roughly $12/MWh.

ERCOT  Given the above-average loads due to high temperatures and variation in generation costs due to elevated spot prices for natural gas, real-time prices remain strong for this time of year; 7x24 prices have averaged $60-$75/MWh for the week. The Houston Load Zone remains priciest but has improved considerably since the beginning of the month in that regard. For instance, although its real-time figures are $10/MWh greater than those in the North Load Zone this week, that spread is considerably less than the average spread between those zones of approximately $50/MWh for the month to date. Forward-term prices continue their steep ascent, following the trail blazed by forward natural gas prices. The prompt 12-month strip is up by $9/MWh from last week, and the back of the curve has jumped by $1/MWh on further announcements of additional LNG export capacity.

EAST Mild winds and ever rising natural gas prices have sent prices in PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE this week well above May prices for the past four years and into the $70s-$90s/MWh. Expecting intense heat over the weekend and throughout next week, traders are pricing various hubs over $100/MWh through next Friday.

NATURAL GAS 

The EIA reported Thursday morning that, for the week ending May 20, U.S. inventories increased by 80 Bcf, in the ballpark but still short of the projected addition of 82 Bcf. Total stockpiles now stand at 1,812 Bcf, down by 17.6% from a year ago and 15.3% below the five-year average for the same week.

June abdicated as the NYMEX Henry Hub prompt month by settling today at $8.908/MMBtu, $0.063/MMBtu below yesterday’s final but still $0.60/MMBtu above last Thursday’s. It had traded as high as $9.420/MMBtu today but sold off sharply after 9:00 a.m. PDT. The new prompt month of July finished just under the $9/MMBtu resistance level at $8.895/MMBtu. All eyes are on activity for the third quarter, which classically includes not only the most volatile months but also peak pricing for next winter. In light of trends for the year to date, trades above $10/MMBtu would not be surprising.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORE STRENGTH SHOWS DURING SUMMER

Summer, with all of its associated stress on electricity grids, is less than one month away. Therefore, now is a perfect time for businesses in the Midwest and Northeast to take advantage of Calpine Energy Solutions’ voluntary Capacity Obligation Reduction Effort (CORE) program, which runs from June 1 through September 30 (July 1 through August 31 in NYISO), to give themselves the best chance to save on their capacity costs for next year in MISO, PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE.

As a refresher, consumers’ capacity charges in those markets are based on both local capacity auction clearing prices and the consumers’ peak load contribution (PLC), their share of the total system load during the peak-load hour of the peak-load day of the preceding year (actually the peak-load hour of each of the five highest peak-load days of the previous year in PJM). If a firm can reduce its PLC, the ensuing drop in its capacity costs will show in its electricity bills for the next planning year.

To help customers exploit this market feature, Calpine Energy Solutions’ CORE team utilizes its sophisticated forecasting system to alert them, sometimes several days beforehand, to potential peak-load days. Suited to a customer’s particular conditions, each announcement proposes a specific date and hours for conserving power by perhaps turning off some lights, raising the thermostat setting, or shifting production to off-peak hours. After the ISOs publish their official system peaks, Calpine Energy Solutions will, upon request, issue a “SCORE Card,” like the one shown below, which projects a customer’s annual capacity savings.

To ask questions or learn more about the benefits of CORE, e-mail CORE@calpinesolutions.com.