banner_market_intelligence_1440x441

MARKET TREND ANALYSIS

Weekly Energy Market Updates by Region - Archive

 

 

 


Issue week: February 13th, 2020  (Wk 7)

 

POWER MARKETS

Chart1_Energy_Market_Intelligence_Commercial

 

WEST A surplus of natural gas keeping seasonal demand easily met has held spot prices below average over the past week. Forward pric-es also continue to drop as projected summer water levels in the Pa-cific Northwest have noticeably increased and forecasts of warm weather persist.

ERCOT   Average real-time prices for the month to date are settling in the low $20s/MWh in every zone save the West Load Zone, where the average is over $60/MWh. However, all zones have recorded sev-eral evening-ramp hours just above $100/MWh. Term prices are up by some $0.30-$0.40/MWh for the week out the curve as the jump in gas prices has outpaced the corresponding fall in heat rates. The ORDC adder is currently less than $0.50/MWh for the month.

EAST Both Day Ahead and Real Time prices remain stable. Across the main trading hubs, Day Ahead prices are printing in the low $20s/MWh with minimal DART spreads. However, if, as anticipated, the cold front expected this weekend manages to produce the lowest temperatures of this winter so far, price spikes may ensue.

NATURAL GAS 

The EIA reported Thursday morning that, for the week ending February 7, U.S. in-ventories decreased by 115 Bcf, approaching the edge of the analysts’ predicted withdrawal range of 102-116 Bcf. Total stockpiles now stand at 2,494 Bcf, up by 31.7% from a year ago and 9.4% above the five-year average for the same week.

Trying to decide which way to go, the front-month NY-MEX contract seesawed from $0.001/MMBtu below yester-day’s closing price to $0.002/MMBtu above in the 30 minutes after the EIA re-port at 7:30 a.m. PT. Mean-while, all months from April 2020 through October 2021 were in negative territory. At PG&E Citygate, basis was down by a couple of cents in the front month and by frac-tions of a cent out to 5 years, whereas it was more or less flat over the same period at SoCal Border.

 

 

Chart1

Map1


 

 

 

Previous Weekly Market Reports: Archive

 

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and all actions and judgments taken in response to it are recipient’s sole responsibility. Champion Energy Services does not guaranty its accuracy. This reports is provided ‘as is’. Champion Energy Services makes no expressed or implied representations or warranties of any kind. Except as otherwise indicated in this report, this report shall remain the sole and exclusive property of Champion Energy Services and shall be free from any claim or right, license, title or interest. Champion Energy Services shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from this report.